Germany: Consumer sentiment expected to drop to all-time low in September
August 26, 2022
The GfK consumer climate index is forecast to drop from minus 30.9 in August to an all-time low of minus 36.5 in September.
The expected deterioration in sentiment came on the back of backward-looking data for August, which is released simultaneously and underpins the September expectation. A steep rise in the propensity to save was the main driver of the headline deterioration. Consumers expect to save more as a precautionary measure due to towering energy costs in the months ahead. Despite the grim backdrop amid a high risk of recession, economic expectations turned less downbeat in the month. Similarly, income expectations inched up, but remained deeply entrenched in negative territory: Persistently high inflation rates are dealing a blow to income expectations as they are eating into consumers’ pockets. Lastly, consumers’ propensity to buy decreased. This is driven by rising energy and food costs eroding financial means for other purchases.
Author: Jan Lammersen, Economist