Ecuador Economic Outlook
June 14, 2022The economy seemed to slow in Q1. On average, economic activity grew at a weaker annual pace than in 2021. The oil sector contracted due to natural disasters and lack of prior investment. More positively, the agricultural, construction and services sectors grew strongly. Turning to Q2, the oil sector is likely recovering, boosting growth. Meanwhile, near decade-high oil prices are providing relief to the external and fiscal balances. This has allowed the government to introduce a new cash transfer program and housing subsidies, supporting private consumption alongside its existing fuel subsidy program. That said, such measures will hurt public finances, which could pose a problem for the lending agreement reached with the IMF in May. In politics, the president and the legislature remain at loggerheads due to conflicts over policies relating to the judiciary, labor market and investment.
Ecuador Economic GrowthThis year, growth appears unlikely to bring GDP back to its pre-pandemic levels. Rising inflation and a weak labor market will dent private spending in spite of government subsidies. That said, high energy prices will fortify the country’s external and fiscal balances. Key factors to watch include commodity prices and volatile weather conditions. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees GDP growth moderating to 2.3%.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic News
August 18, 2022
Economic activity rose 4.3% year on year in June, which was a deterioration from May's 12.4% increase.
August 5, 2022
Consumer prices rose 0.16% over the previous month in July, which was below the 0.65% increase recorded in June.
July 18, 2022
Economic activity grew 12.1% year on year in May (April: +10.0% yoy).
July 6, 2022
Consumer prices rose 0.65% in June over the previous month, accelerating from May's 0.56% increase.
June 30, 2022
GDP eased to 3.8% in annual terms in Q1 2022, below Q4 2021’s 4.9% expansion. The slower growth in Q1 was due to weaker private consumption growth, which softened to 6.7% in Q1 2022 (Q4 2021: +9.6%).