Euro Area Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for the Euro Area

August 31, 2022

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Euro area economic activity to moderate this year

GDP will expand at a milder pace this year. Depressed confidence, supply chain disruptions, higher commodity prices and rising interest rates will limit growth. That said, a recovering tourism sector, lower unemployment and EU funds disbursements should support activity. Financial instability risks stemming from high public debts and gas rationing cloud the outlook.

Inflation to remain high in 2022

Harmonized inflation jumped to a series high of 8.6% in June, from May’s 8.1% reading. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, higher commodity prices and supply bottlenecks will fuel inflation this year. Gas supply cuts, a weaker Euro, second-round effects and further lockdowns in China pose upside risks.


 

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