Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022Recent data shows that GDP accelerated further in Q1. Q1’s expansion was driven mainly by the mining and manufacturing sectors. In contrast, the agriculture and services sectors saw smaller expansions, with the latter potentially linked to unrest in January and softer Russian visitor arrivals. Turning to Q2, growth is likely to be sluggish. In April, oil production fell markedly and manufacturing output slowed. Moreover, soaring inflation and consequent interest rate hikes should be dampening consumption. However, the services PMI recovered well above the 50-point mark in April and May, suggesting that businesses are weathering the adverse international environment rather well. Meanwhile, the country voted in early June in favor of a new constitution which aims to give more power to parliament and reduce the influence of former president Nazarbayev.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthOur panelists expect only moderate growth in 2022 due to Kazakhstan’s strong links with a weakening Russian economy, high inflation and tighter monetary policy. However, pro-market reforms and sky-high oil prices should support activity. A resurgence of social unrest and potential further sanctions on Russia are downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 2.7% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is set to grow 3.8%.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||382.9||0.32 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
September 5, 2022
According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth weakened to 3.4% year on year in January-June, down from 4.6% in January–March.
September 5, 2022
Consumer prices increased 1.40% in August over the previous month, accelerating from the 1.10% increase logged in July.
August 15, 2022
Industrial output fell 2.4% year on year in July (June: -1.3% yoy).
August 1, 2022
Consumer prices rose 1.10% in July over the previous month, coming in below the 1.60% rise seen in June.
July 25, 2022
At its latest meeting on 25 July, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to raise its base rate by 50 basis points to 14.50%, following its decision to stand pat in early June.