China Retail July 2022

China

China: Retail sales growth deteriorates in July

August 15, 2022

Retail sales grew 2.7% in year-on-year terms in July, which was a deterioration from June's 3.1% increase and far below market expectations of 5.0% growth. The weak reading was the result of an uptick in Covid-19 cases in the month and a deepening property sector downturn, which weighed on housing-related purchases.

On a monthly basis, retail sales grew 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, which was below June’s 0.8% expansion. Meanwhile, annual average retail sales growth fell to 4.9% in July (June: +7.3%), signaling a worsening trend in the retail trade sector.

Retail sales in August are likely to also be downbeat, given a further rise in Covid-19 cases so far in the month and ongoing lockdown restrictions in parts of the country.

Our panelists see retail sales rising 4.6% in 2022, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 9.4% in 2023.


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China Retail July 2022

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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