Serbia Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022The pace of economic growth moderated notably in the first quarter, and the breakdown of components calls for caution regarding future growth. Fixed investment growth moderated sharply in Q1 and, while inventory build-up stimulated growth significantly, it is likely that destocking in the later stages of the year will weigh on economic activity. On the other hand, household spending growth remained upbeat, seemingly undeterred by rising price pressures. Turning to the second quarter, inflation rose further in April and is unlikely to have peaked; producer price inflation also intensified in April. More positively, merchandise exports expanded robustly in the same month. Meanwhile, political pressure on Serbia is building. While most of Europe is turning away from Russian oil and gas, the government signed a new three-year gas supply deal with Russia in late May.
Serbia Economic GrowthEconomic growth will cool sharply this year, but remain healthy nonetheless. Sanctions placed upon Russia will hurt tourism and trade, denting goods and services exports. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices will stoke inflationary forces and eat into consumers’ pockets. However, solid wage growth and a tighter labor market should provide some support. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.5% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2023.
Serbia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||3.05||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||104.9||-0.31 %||Jan 01|
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Serbia Economic News
August 31, 2022
Industrial production contracted 1.6% year on year in July, swinging from the 3.7% expansion recorded in June and suggesting that the economy got off on the wrong foot at the start of the third quarter.
August 31, 2022
The Serbian economy expanded at a slower clip of 3.9% year on year in the second quarter (Q1: +4.3% yoy).
August 12, 2022
Consumer prices rose 1.00% from the previous month in July, coming in below the 1.62% increase recorded in June.
August 11, 2022
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) continued its hiking cycle at its 11 August meeting, delivering another 25 basis point increase.
August 1, 2022
Industrial production growth eased to 3.7% year on year in June, down from May’s 8.7% increase.