South Eastern Europe Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for South-Eastern Europe

August 3, 2022

Economic growth in South-Eastern Europe set to cool in 2022

Regional economic growth is set to cool this year as the Ukraine war bites, on top of a tougher base of comparison. The war is fueling inflation, worsening supply chains and hurting sentiment. Moreover, international sanctions placed on Russia will weigh on tourism and trade. Lower unemployment rates and easing Covid-19 restrictions should offer some respite, however.

Inflationary pressures expected to increase in South-Eastern Europe

Regional inflation jumped to a series high of 44.9% in June from 42.0% in May. Price pressures intensified across the region, although Turkey stood out. Inflation is expected to peak in Q3, before gradually easing towards year-end. That said, the balance of risks is clearly tilted to the upside amid Russia’s weaponization of its oil and gas.

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